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“When Israel, the only country in the world whose very existence is under attack, is consistently and conspicuously singled out for condemnation, I believe we are morally obligated to take a stand.” by Canada's PM Harper

Sunday 24 November 2013

Iran's nuclear deal (for whom?)

It will be less about Israel and more internationally today.
Today in newspapers they proclaimed a great success - signing a deal with Iran on halting its nuclear program in exchange for vast Western economic help. It is said to be success in negotiations and a road to peace, but is it really?

Let's look a it closely. Does Iran need complicated and expensive nuclear energy for peace purposes? I don't think so. The country sitting on oil with gas prices ranging around 0,15$ per liter or less hardly needs to invest in this type of technology before tending to other needs.
Do they need Western economic help? Yes, for the first time in years they might use some as due to the restrictions put on it for last few years the crisis set on. It means that the restrictions were working.
Were the Western negotiators willing to put this pressure in order to halt and dismantle nuclear program  under supervision? No, it purely is supposed to be halted. But its goal was never pacifist one and nobody in Iran was really denying it. And it is not only aiming towards regional hegemony and - possibly - destroying Israel (which was announced loudly by Iran's president). It is also close enough to Europe to dictate some of European politics, using dirty bombs as arguments, information (true or untrue) about missing nuclear material or threatening its sources of energy not only in Iran but the whole region.

And it doesn't take a genius to guess who and what does Iran wants to protect. It is Islamic republic, home of Khomeini and Islamic revolution, a country as hostile towards West as they make it. Yes, it is engaged in eternal bloody war in Muslim world between Sunni and Shiite but it has governors adept enough at socio-technics to be able to (for a time) unite them formally against common enemy if need be. And they have many friends in the region.

Now look at the demography: in 1956 Iran had app. 19 million residents; in 2009 already 75 million, in 2050 it is expected to have app. 105 million residents. Compare with app. 500 million in the whole EU with its 10% Muslim minority (so, app. 50 million people).

Now look at what has been said by Iran's authorities lately:
"The wave of Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world"
"Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of Islamic nation's fury"
"Global equations undergo changes, this is their nature"
"The UN structure is one-sided, stacked against the world of Islam"

Do they sound scary? For me they do, words of fanatics - ready to kill and die and send others to their death always do sound scary.

We are taking about reasonably rich, powerful, fast-growing country with over representation of military-oriented young men, with fanatical government and authorities acting as if under attack by anybody in the West and as if representing Islam (no just Iran) - in its whole. It strongly brings to memory words of Nasser at the dawn of 6 Days War. It also brings to memory the times where 2 sides acting on different principles were engaged: conquistadors and native Indians, Romans and Huns, Europeans and Mongols in XIII century, or - more recently - Hitler and Deladier / Chamberlain. One side believes the other will be appeased by economic help and transfer of wealth (diminishing in Europe, not required in Iran which IS a rich country), the other operates under principles of faith, lust for power and belief in its holy mission.

Let me compare to quates:
“Today, that diplomacy opened up a new path toward a world that is more secure, a future in which we can verify that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful and that it cannot build a nuclear weapon.”(President Obama, today)
"I have returned from Germany with peace for our time." (Neville Chamberlain, 1938, just after Munich conference, less than a year before WWII)

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