During last few days important though contradictory pieces of information considering Palestinians, Egypt and Fatah have been released in media.
According to the information first relieved by Palestinian Ma'an Service Agency (established on West Bank ruled by Palestinian Authority) Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has offered the great territory on Sinai Peninsula for the purpose of establishing - together with Gaza and parts of West Bank under Fatah control - state of Palestine. Ma'an quotes supposed words of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as “They [the Egyptians] are prepared to receive all the refugees, [and
are saying] ‘Let’s end the refugee story.’” “But,” he insisted, “It’s
illogical for the problem to be solved at Egypt’s expense. We won’t have
it.” Thus - not for the first time - Abbas has effectively refused possibility of creating independent Palestine! It is not, after all, his goal.
Following release of this piece of news Israeli and than American media have claimed the story, here it is as appeared in Fox News.
The story caused some optimism though later on it was demented by both Palestinian and Egyptian sources; still, only after it has became the news.
Let's try to examine why would Egypt make such an offer, why would Abbas reject it and why would both parties insist on this never happening.
Facing the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, and the rise of jihadist
forces from al-Qaida to the Islamic State to the Muslim Brotherhood,
the non-jihadist Sunnis no longer believe that the prolongation of the
Palestinian jihad against Israel is in their interest. Syria and Lebanon have already suffered and have been damaged probably beyond repair (at least when it comes to Syria) by jihadist, mostly shi'ia movements.
Hamas at this point poses the threat to both Egypt and Jordan (together with other terrorist movements dangerous for Jordanian Kingdom possibly no less than Black September in 1970). Egypt, involved in struggle with Muslim Brotherhood (whose child Hamas is) and touched directly by terrorist attacks by Hamas on its own territory (to the extend of helping Israel militarily in this last campaign) has to be specially cautious about guarding its border.
Egypt's offer is far from altruistic, neither does it want to make things much easier for Israel nor for Palestinians. It is coldly calculated, self-serving offer which - when it comes to geopolitics - is probably the best approach. It may be learned also from conditions Egypt has demanded to be met by Palestinians if the offer would have to be sustained. The future Palestine would have to be demilitarized and ruled by Fatah (under no condition by Hamas). Thus it would have allowed Egypt to answer some of its own security demands.
So, why would Abbas reject such an offer not only allowing for Palestine Autonomy to move to the stage of independent state but also guaranteeing him personally status of the first president of such entity?
The only logical answer is in the politics, economics and origins of PA authorities. Their narrative is totally based on blaming Israel for everything and they live on the legend of former Nazi perpetrator Haj Amin al-Hussaini - the man responsible to the great extent for 1948 war of independence. As generation upon generation of Palestinian children had been brought up on the rabidly antisemitic narrative, taught about "right of return" and hatred towards Jews was more important than Quran in their training Abbas is not prepared (and possibly does not believe that his subjects are) for changing of narrative and giving up some of it even for the price of giving up independent and larger Palestine.The fate of thousands of Palestinian refugees (specially those trapped in Syria in desperate situation) is obviously indifferent for him (as could be expected and was articulated by both Arafat and Abbas). Abbas may even be afraid of loosing both power and life if he changes narrative thus becoming hostage of his own myths.
Specially that independent state of Palestine wold have been trouble for him. Having a country to run means having to think about supplying it in electricity and water (something Israel is doing for them right now), caring about budget (something Europe and the USA are taking care of), education (for the moment UNRWA pays the bills) or medical care (again on more than basic level it usually is Israel that does the job). Fatah is for years a ruling party yet in its rhetoric and approach it acts as the opposition. Abbas, for very down-to-earth reasons is against creating the state of Palestine.
Why does Egypt deny making an offer is in this situation relatively easy to guess. Since it rejection it may not be counted as gain (solving refugee and security problems) and many in Arab world would blame Egypt for doing something - good for Palestinians and Egyptians as it would have been - which would help solve some Israeli problems.
Lastly - today's news shows that Saudi Arabia has had enough of Hamas as well.
And yet it is the first solution in the Middle East which could have brought lasting peace for so many. Is there anybody who could force Abbas to reconsider or accept offer? Yes, that would have been EU (the biggest donor of taxpayer's money to Palestinian Authority) and the USA. Abbas lives at their expense. If they really want (Europe specially, with its 500 million euro yearly donation to PA) to act towards peace and solving Palestinian problems it is time to put some pressure on their client. But will Europe overcome its anti-Israeli narrative, its prejudices and bureaucracy? Let's hope so as - if the offer was really made - it is the best chance in years to solve some problems.
